Moore in 1965 was surrounded by multichip packages, he did not need to imagine that. The MOS scaling law (Dennard) would not become the dominant factor until around 1980, since it needed CMOS to really work. NMOS, bipolar, and others disappeared because they did not scale.
Moore's law was an economic law - it says so in his own words. He just looked at it as the overall result of multiple innovations. There was no one dominant scaling effect back when he wrote it.
Moore in 1965 was surrounded by multichip packages, he did not need to imagine that. The MOS scaling law (Dennard) would not become the dominant factor until around 1980, since it needed CMOS to really work. NMOS, bipolar, and others disappeared because they did not scale.
Moore's law was an economic law - it says so in his own words. He just looked at it as the overall result of multiple innovations. There was no one dominant scaling effect back when he wrote it.